This year, Gazterm 2026 put forward an ambitious proposition: the development of gas infrastructure should drive domestic business, support local companies and create space for technological innovation based on local content. This is the right approach, as only growth built on domestic resources will allow Poland to maintain its competitiveness during the energy transition.
However, one more key element should be added to this discussion: today, the competitiveness of the Polish economy depends directly on energy prices, and therefore also on the cost of gas and its supply. Natural gas still serves as a transition fuel on the path to climate neutrality, but recent events – the pandemic, the war in Ukraine and tensions in the Middle East – have shown just how unpredictable the LNG market has become.
Today, the LNG terminal in Świnoujście covers around half of Poland’s gas demand, and once the FSRU terminal in Gdańsk becomes operational, that share will increase further. This also means greater dependence on seaborne deliveries and the global geopolitical environment. As one market participant aptly noted, bottlenecks on the scale of the Strait of Hormuz can now emerge in many parts of the world: any crisis in energy logistics immediately translates into price volatility and affects the competitiveness of economies.
Investments, flexibility and energy costs
Gaz-System, PSG and Gas Storage Poland have investment plans worth billions of PLN. Many of these projects concern new generation capacity, including gas-fired power plants. However, only a small share of the planned units – around 3 GW – are flexible sources capable of working effectively with renewable energy sources. The majority are still CCGT units: efficient, but not very flexible and increasingly adding costs to the system.
As UNIMOT CEO Adam Sikorski rightly pointed out, today we are less concerned about electricity shortages than about fuel shortages. Yet energy prices remain the key factor, as they will ultimately determine Poland’s competitive position.
Every new infrastructure investment carries the risk of increasing the overall cost base, which may translate into higher transmission tariffs and higher electricity prices for end users. That is why it is so important for local content not to increase costs, but to help optimise them. This can be achieved through:
- the digitisation of project documentation and the automation of construction work;
- the development of predictive analytics and the use of AI in network maintenance;
- the creation of new cooperation models with contractors, enabling them to move smoothly from infrastructure construction to long-term servicing.
Such an approach, already known in Western Europe, helps reduce the final cost of energy for end users and improves the resilience of the energy system.
Gas today, hydrogen and biomethane tomorrow
Looking ahead, the natural gas market has its limits, and investments made today should already be H₂-ready. The examples of Belgium, the Netherlands and Germany show that LNG terminals and transmission networks adapted for hydrogen or ammonia are becoming the standard. Poland should seize this opportunity to involve domestic research centres and technology companies in the process.
At the same time, it is worth preparing for a scenario of limited LNG supplies. In such a case, biomethane could become a strategic backup fuel. The biomethane injection points planned by PSG and Gaz-System are a step in the right direction, provided that biomethane production is coordinated with the locations of gas-fired power plants.
Cross-sector cooperation and financing the transition
The transition cannot take place in silos. Investments in gas, electricity and district heating infrastructure should be designed in a complementary way, with a focus on minimising overall system costs.
The approach of financial institutions is also becoming increasingly important. The EU Taxonomy and the Green Asset Ratio (GAR) are becoming real filters determining access to capital. For infrastructure companies, this means that sustainability considerations must be incorporated already at the project planning and technology selection stages.
What about individual consumers?
In the long term, another important issue emerges: the future of small gas consumers, the so-called “stove-only users”. In Poland, this group includes around 2 million households, many of them occupied by senior citizens. As network maintenance costs rise and safety requirements become more demanding, supplying gas solely for cooking purposes will become increasingly uneconomical.
The transition to electric cooking is inevitable, but it will require systemic support – both financial and technical – especially for lower-income households.
The discussions at Gazterm 2026 show that the future of the Polish gas sector is not only about security of supply, but also about economic competitiveness and energy prices. The path toward a low-emission economy requires the integration of technology, science and finance, as well as the full use of the potential of domestic companies.
This is precisely the kind of transformation – smart, collaborative and based on local resources – that NEXUS Consultants promotes.